Published Tuesday, Apr 30, 2013 at 11:09 am EDT Last updated 1 hour and 47 minutes ago
On both sides of the basketball divide?NBA and NCAA?Sunday was a fascinating day. Despite a relatively weak NBA draft, and despite the fact that next year?s crop looks impressive, at least nine potential first-round picks pulled their names from consideration and opted to return to college.
In order to see their decisions from both lenses, we talked with an NBA scouting director about what the players involved can do to boost their draft stock next season, and had SN?s college hoops writer Mike DeCourcy weigh in on what each player?s return will mean for the college game.
Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
If he had entered: Smart would have been a Top 5 pick, and depending on how the lottery shook out, would have had a shot at being the first player selected.
Scout?s view: ?He is a big (6-4) point guard who sees the floor and is an outstanding defender. He carried that team last year and he will have to do that again. He will be a starter from Day 1 in the NBA. But if he is going to improve his stock, the big thing is definitely his shooting, that was his weak point. He has a good stroke and he should become a good shooter, it?s just being generally more efficient.?
DeCourcy?s take: Of those who returned, Smart needed it least and might have the toughest time improving on his most recent season. Oklahoma State has its key players in place, but the Cowboys remain a bit short and light in the frontcourt. They signed an athletic JC center, Gary Gaskins, and he?d have to be one of the few such recruits to find instant success. Smart can do it all, but he can only do so much.
Alex Poythress, SF, Kentucky
If he had entered: Poythress was a bit of a mystery man last season, and front-office execs were not quite sure where he would land?he had a chance to go late in the lottery but was more likely in the 15-20 range.
Scout?s view: ?He has got talent. He just needs to show it every night. He made the right call going back, because the big question is whether he can play out on the perimeter. He hasn?t really answered that, and he isn?t big enough to play the 4.?
DeCourcy?s take: Ideally, Kentucky did not want to be trapped in a season in which there were no veterans around to show the gifted freshman what it takes to be a successful collegian. But is Poythress really that guy? He never became fully engaged with John Calipari?s demands to work hard and invest in the game. Poythress has talked the talk since the season ended, however.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
If he had entered: Because Cauley-Stein is a big man in a draft that is mostly small, he probably would have been drafted anywhere from No. 10-20. That would have been based entirely on potential, because Cauley-Stein wasn?t especially productive (8.3 points, 6.2 rebounds) as a freshman.
Scout?s view: ?I like what he showed after (Nerlens) Noel went down. You?d like to see him grow a little bit offensively and really take command on defense. I am not sure what his upside is in the post, but if he can get a little going in terms of back-to-the-basket stuff, he is going to be valuable. He runs the floor very well, and he is going to be a very good defender.?
DeCourcy?s take: It is difficult for most any big guy to make an immediate impact upon stepping up from high school to college. Cauley-Stein thus provides Kentucky with the foundation of a successful inside game, enabling recruit Dakari Johnson to gradually adjust to the college game. Cauley-Stein will be a strong defensive presence for the Wildcats and can be a target in the low post.
Mitch McGary, PF, Michigan
If he had entered: McGary is a late bloomer whose production in the NCAA tournament had him shooting up draft boards in March. He would have gone in the middle of the first round.
Scout?s view: ?He just needs to back up what he did in the tournament. He is a high-energy guy he has a great build, he is not a skinny kid you need to put weight on. He is going to rebound and defend his spot, and he can hit midrange jumpers. I want him to be more assertive and show that he can score 15, 16 points and get eight or 10 rebounds every time out.?
DeCourcy?s take: He plays hard, runs well, catches everything, shoots it great, scores inside and passes like a wizard. He obviously will not be as gifted as freshmen such as Andrew Wiggins and Julius Randle, but there?s a chance he could be as effective a player as anyone now that he?s discovered what he can achieve with his wide array of skills. And, honestly, Michigan will need more from him than when Trey Burke was running the show.
Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan
If he had entered: Robinson is an adept scorer, and if he had put together good workouts as a perimeter player, he was slated to go in the late teens or early 20s.
Scout?s view: ?I would say it starts with ballhandling with him. He has the potential to be a good midrange shooter but he has to get better at working toward his spots. I would show him film of Paul Pierce, over and over. He needs to develop his left hand and be able to control his movements better?you know, stop-and-start, get your defender off balance, and get your shots that way.?
DeCourcy?s take: Robinson played exclusively at power forward as a freshman and might now get more opportunity to show he can defend quicker players. But the small forward position is one of the trickiest in any offense, especially for one who has yet to show he is an exceptional 3-point shooter or driver of the basketball. Robinson might find himself less comfortable on the perimeter than he expects.
Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State
If he had entered: After Smart, Harris probably had the best shot to wind up high in the draft, sure to go in the lottery, maybe even the Top 10.
Scout?s view: ?He developed quickly, that was a surprise. Everything you?d hoped he would do, he did?he put on weight, he played good defense, he was not afraid to shoot. He had some injury issues that might have slowed him down at different parts of the year, so just staying healthy and bumping up the production will be enough to keep him in the lottery.?
DeCourcy?s take: Harris had a quietly magnificent freshman season, limited perhaps only by the relatively low volume of shot attempts for someone with such impressive accuracy and also his own need to become more active attacking the goal. He didn?t attempt even 100 free throws, which will have to improve if MSU is to be a title contender. And Keith Appling will need to pass Harris the ball more.
James Michael McAdoo, PF, North Carolina
If he had entered: There wasn?t really a consensus on McAdoo heading into the offseason, but he was likely to be a No. 15-20 pick.
Scout?s view: ?Is he more than an athlete? That?s what I want to see from him. More of a face-up game, knocking down the 12-to-15 footers. He has so much raw athleticism that he is worth a high pick. But he is going to have to play away from the basket more in the NBA, and that will be the challenge for him to show he can handle it.?
DeCourcy?s take: The weirdest thing about McAdoo?s sophomore season is how little credit he received for playing out of position, battling bigger players?and still dramatically improving his production. What part of operating as a lean 6-9 center sounds appealing? Carolina should be a bigger, more conventional team and McAdoo might have a chance to be an actual power forward. He?ll be a very good one.
Doug McDermott, SF, Creighton
If he had entered: McDermott?s shooting probably would have earned him a spot in the late first round, though he might have slipped to Round 2.
Scout?s view: ?I thought he would have been a first-rounder, but maybe not. There isn?t much he is going to do as a senior that we haven?t seen. He is an incredible shooter. But the other stuff?size, athleticism?that?s not going to change. They?re going to be the question marks no matter what.?
DeCourcy?s take: It?s unlikely he?s coming back to as good a team as either of the past two Creighton squads. Guard Grant Gibbs and center Gregory Echenique were seniors last season, and both will be difficult to replace. The Blue Jays also will be taking a significant step forward into the Big East, where the tough challenges will come more regularly. They?ll need him to live in the 25-point neighborhood again.
Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State
If he had entered: Scouts were intrigued by Payne?s versatility?he is a legit big man (6-10) who can shoot, plays solid defense and has improved drastically in three years at Michigan State. He was likely to go in the early 20s.
Scout?s view: ?I thought he should have come out. He has done a tremendous job there, he has put on a lot of muscle, he has gone from being almost nothing offensively to being a pretty good shooter. Draft-wise, I don?t know how much more he can accomplish by going back to school. If they?re a good team, though, that will benefit him.?
DeCourcy?s take: His return is the final piece, and the most essential, to Michigan State ranking with Kentucky, Louisville, Duke and maybe some others as genuine challengers for the NCAA championship. Michigan State needs an elite big to compete with the others, and Payne is the one they?ve got. He?ll still be primarily a stretch-4, but with greater responsibility to command the lane on D.
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